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POINT SPREAD BETTING
Point Spread Example using the NFL
SPORT: NFL AFC Divisional Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Buffalo Bills
- FAVORITE: (-5.5) Chiefs need to win by 6 or higher
- UNDERDOG:(+5.5) Bills need to lose by 5 or less
- FINAL SCORE: (42-36) F/OT
Spread picks are one most popular bet type especially in NFL, and NBA. These two particular sports score higher point averages. When reading point spread picks, you have the two options, (-)represents the “favorite” (+)represents the “underdog.” These symbols are usually followed by a number shown here: (-5.5) or (+5.5). Let’s take a closer look at (-5.5), the (-) is the “favorite” or team with the high odds of winning.
The 5.5 represents how many points the team has to win by. When reading this it would translate into Chiefs need to win by at least 6 points. For (+5.5), the (+) is the “underdog” or team that is more likely to lose. The 5.5 represents how many points they need to lose by. The translation would be, Bills need to lose by 5 or less points. Let’s use a real game example.
These examples are using American odds, but can be converted into fractional, or decimal if you prefer to use those formats.
Reading Point Spreads
If you placed your bet like this (-5.5) Chiefs then you would have won. Now, if you were to place your bet like this (+5.5) you also would have won, because you are betting that the Bills are going to lose by at least 5 points.
Now let’s apply this with money. I’ve noticed that a lot of sportsbooks use -110 on their odds sheets so we will use that for the example. Sportsbooks take a 10% commission or “juice” off any bets that are placed. For every $1 you bet, you risk $1.10. If you want to win $100, you have to bet $110. Let’s take a closer look.
point and goal differentials
The numerical gap between points scored and points given. Wins in close games tend to not reflect a team’s true skill. Teams that start the season with a better record than their point differential tend to slow down and vice versa. Point differential is also a better predictor of future performance than win-loss record.
Goal difference (or points difference) is calculated as the number of goals (or points) scored in all league matches minus the number of goals or points admitted, and is sometimes known simply as plus–minus. This is pretty much identical to calculating the point differentials. Goal difference is used as either the first or, after tying teams’ head-to-head records, second tiebreaker.
(Goals Scored) – (Goals Allowed) = Goal Difference Formula
Point Spread Examples
These examples are based off American odds, but can be easily converted into fractional or decimal odds if you prefer to follow those formats.
Odds sheet for betting on the favorite. When reading odds sheets, (-) followed by the number is how much you have to risk or bet to win your profit.
- -110 (bet)
- $100 (profit)
- $210 (payout)
Odds sheet for betting on the underdog. Reading odds sheets with (+) followed by the number is the potential profit when placing your bet.
- $100 (bet)
- +200 (profit)
- $300 (payout)
Don’t place any bets based on score predictions alone. ALWAYS pair your score predictions with another indicator or factor. Combine your score predictions with other automated systems.
Follow the expert predictions and recommendations and compare what the experts say for maximum results.
Point Spread Forecasts
Get FREE 5 star verified daily picks and predictions on MLB, NHL, NFL, and NBA and more!
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